New study suggests malaria deaths may be underestimated

Worldwide malaria deaths may be almost twice as high as previously estimated, according to a new study published by the Lancet that has caused extensive debate amongst the malaria community.

The study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle claims that more than 1.2m people die from the disease annually, “substantially” more than the figures produced by the World Health Organisation, which set the number of deaths in 2010 at 655,000.

The difference is principally due to the significantly different estimates of adult deaths from malaria in Africa, which the new study based on verbal autopsy reports.

Robert Newman, Director of the WHO Global Malaria Programme urged the malaria global health community to exercise caution when interpreting the malaria burden estimates. He noted that WHO appreciates all the efforts by partners and the scientific community to improve estimation methods for the global malaria burden and welcomes this study as well.

There are similarities between the IHME and WHO findings. Both show an unacceptably high number of people continue to die from malaria, and that disease burden trends are moving down. They agree that the percentage of all malaria deaths occurring in Africa is 91%; that the number of deaths estimated to occur in children is similar both in and outside of Africa; and that the number of deaths estimated to occur outside of Africa in individuals over the age of five are similar. 

Read the WHO Q&A on this study.